How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Ohio OH-15
Don Leonard vs Mike Carey
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2522
Raised $1.1M against $4.0M for Mike Carey.
- Cash weight 2024
$196K in the bank against $628K for Mike Carey. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1580
Outside groups spent $2.9M helping Don Leonard and $745K helping Mike Carey.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.92 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.9 points of that tide, a tailwind for Don Leonard.
- Activity weight 1025
$12K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2578
Raised $4.0M against $1.1M for Don Leonard.
- Cash weight 2076
$628K in the bank against $196K for Don Leonard. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1520
Outside groups spent $745K helping Mike Carey and $2.9M helping Don Leonard.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.92 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.9 points of that tide, a headwind for Mike Carey.
- Activity weight 1025
$20K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Don Leonard leads by 0.7 in the forecast and wins 53% of simulations. The cushion is about 2,355 votes; a one point swing is about 1,591 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.3 and D +9.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$196K cash against $628K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Mike Carey's strongest asset
Money: Raised $4.0M against $1.1M for Don Leonard.
- Close the gap
Mike Carey trails by 0.7 and wins 47% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,177 voters switching sides, or 2,355 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.0 and R +7.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$628K cash against $196K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Don Leonard's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $2.9M helping Don Leonard and $745K helping Mike Carey.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +9.0 and R +7.3
- Polling average
- R +2.0
- Partisan lean
- R +9.9
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Leonard | Carey | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.1M | $4.0M |
| Spent | $950K | $3.5M |
| Cash on hand | $196K | $628K |
| Outside money for | $2.9M | $745K |
| Google ads | $13K | $20K |
The early vote
Ohio, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,123,397
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.8
- Forecast expected
- D +10.3
- Against expectation
- 1.4 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.