How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Ohio OH-08
Vanessa Enoch vs Warren Davidson
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Cash weight 201
$3K in the bank against $432K for Warren Davidson. As of 06/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1577
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Vanessa Enoch.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $3K against $432K.
- Cash weight 2099
$432K in the bank against $3K for Vanessa Enoch. As of 09/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1523
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Warren Davidson.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Vanessa Enoch trails by 3.3 and wins 32% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,191 voters switching sides, or 10,381 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +12.1 and D +5.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$3K cash against $432K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Warren Davidson's strongest asset
Cash: $432K in the bank against $3K for Vanessa Enoch.
- Protect the lead
Warren Davidson leads by 3.3 in the forecast and wins 68% of simulations. The cushion is about 10,381 votes; a one point swing is about 1,592 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.4 and R +12.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$432K cash against $3K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Vanessa Enoch's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +3.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.4 and R +12.1
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +16.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Enoch | Davidson | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | n/a | $751K |
| Spent | $0 | $714K |
| Cash on hand | $3K | $432K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $191 |
| Google ads | $0 | $0 |
The early vote
Ohio, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,123,397
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.8
- Forecast expected
- D +10.3
- Against expectation
- 1.4 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.