How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
New York NY-01
Chris Gallant vs Nick LaLota
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2526
Raised $1.6M against $4.4M for Nick LaLota.
- Cash weight 205
$172K in the bank against $3.3M for Nick LaLota. As of 06/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1575
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.78 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.9 points of that tide, a tailwind for Chris Gallant.
- Activity weight 1025
$900 in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $172K against $3.3M.
- Money weight 2574
Raised $4.4M against $1.6M for Chris Gallant.
- Cash weight 2095
$3.3M in the bank against $172K for Chris Gallant. As of 06/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1525
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.78 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.9 points of that tide, a headwind for Nick LaLota.
- Activity weight 1025
$52K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Chris Gallant trails by 1.6 and wins 40% of simulations. Closing it takes about 2,309 voters switching sides, or 4,619 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.2 and D +6.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$172K cash against $3.3M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Nick LaLota's strongest asset
Cash: $3.3M in the bank against $172K for Chris Gallant.
- Protect the lead
Nick LaLota leads by 1.6 in the forecast and wins 60% of simulations. The cushion is about 4,619 votes; a one point swing is about 1,490 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.3 and R +9.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$3.3M cash against $172K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Chris Gallant's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +6.3 and R +9.2
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +7.6
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Gallant | LaLota | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.6M | $4.4M |
| Spent | $475K | $1.1M |
| Cash on hand | $172K | $3.3M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $900 | $52K |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for New York yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.