How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida FL-22
Pia Dandiya vs Casey Askar
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2544
Raised $3.9M against $4.9M for Casey Askar.
- Cash weight 2055
$1.3M in the bank against $1.1M for Casey Askar. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 158
Outside groups spent $241K helping Pia Dandiya and $2.9M helping Casey Askar.
- Early vote weight 744
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1582
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.07 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 15.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Pia Dandiya.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $288K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2556
Raised $4.9M against $3.9M for Pia Dandiya.
- Cash weight 2045
$1.1M in the bank against $1.3M for Pia Dandiya. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1592
Outside groups spent $2.9M helping Casey Askar and $241K helping Pia Dandiya.
- Early vote weight 756
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1518
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.07 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 15.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Casey Askar.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Pia Dandiya trails by 0.2 and wins 50% of simulations. Closing it takes about 351 voters switching sides, or 702 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.0 and D +8.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.3M cash against $1.1M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Casey Askar's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $2.9M helping Casey Askar and $241K helping Pia Dandiya.
- Protect the lead
Casey Askar leads by 0.2 in the forecast and wins 50% of simulations. The cushion is about 702 votes; a one point swing is about 1,595 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.6 and R +9.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.1M cash against $1.3M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Pia Dandiya's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +0.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.6 and R +9.0
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +6.7
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/29/2026| Dandiya | Askar | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.9M | $4.9M |
| Spent | $987K | $1.5M |
| Cash on hand | $1.3M | $1.1M |
| Outside money for | $241K | $2.9M |
| Google ads | $288K | $0 |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 3,238,651
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.2
- Forecast expected
- D +5.9
- Against expectation
- 6.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-26Pete Buttigieg announced in
Announced Monday stop for the FL-22 Democratic nominee; city not given, date inferred from weekday. Source