How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida FL-09
Darren Soto vs Dan Green
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2561
Raised $3.5M against $2.2M for Dan Green.
- Cash weight 2077
$1.2M in the bank against $363K for Dan Green. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1551
Outside groups spent $525K helping Darren Soto and $498K helping Dan Green.
- Early vote weight 744
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.97 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Darren Soto.
- Activity weight 1025
$13K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2539
Raised $2.2M against $3.5M for Darren Soto.
- Cash weight 2023
$363K in the bank against $1.2M for Darren Soto. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1549
Outside groups spent $498K helping Dan Green and $525K helping Darren Soto.
- Early vote weight 756
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.97 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Dan Green.
- Activity weight 1025
$15K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Darren Soto trails by 0.3 and wins 47% of simulations. Closing it takes about 554 voters switching sides, or 1,108 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.6 and D +9.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $363K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Dan Green's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party.
- Protect the lead
Dan Green leads by 0.3 in the forecast and wins 53% of simulations. The cushion is about 1,108 votes; a one point swing is about 1,629 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.2 and R +9.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$363K cash against $1.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Darren Soto's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +0.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +9.2 and R +9.6
- Polling average
- D +3.0
- Partisan lean
- R +14.7
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/29/2026| Soto | Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.5M | $2.2M |
| Spent | $985K | $935K |
| Cash on hand | $1.2M | $363K |
| Outside money for | $525K | $498K |
| Google ads | $13K | $15K |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 3,238,651
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.2
- Forecast expected
- D +5.9
- Against expectation
- 6.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.