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Florida FL-04
LaShonda Holloway vs Aaron Bean
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 252
Raised $54K against $2.5M for Aaron Bean.
- Cash weight 203
$43K in the bank against $1.6M for Aaron Bean. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 744
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1582
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.06 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.8 points of that tide, a tailwind for LaShonda Holloway.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $43K against $1.6M.
- Money weight 2598
Raised $2.5M against $54K for LaShonda Holloway.
- Cash weight 2098
$1.6M in the bank against $43K for LaShonda Holloway. As of 07/29/2026.
- Early vote weight 756
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.06 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.8 points of that tide, a headwind for Aaron Bean.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
LaShonda Holloway trails by 1.8 and wins 40% of simulations. Closing it takes about 2,899 voters switching sides, or 5,797 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.2 and D +7.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$43K cash against $1.6M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Aaron Bean's strongest asset
Money: Raised $2.5M against $54K for LaShonda Holloway.
- Protect the lead
Aaron Bean leads by 1.8 in the forecast and wins 60% of simulations. The cushion is about 5,797 votes; a one point swing is about 1,602 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.3 and R +11.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.6M cash against $43K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- LaShonda Holloway's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.3 and R +11.2
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +8.7
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Holloway | Bean | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $54K | $2.5M |
| Spent | $22K | $1.0M |
| Cash on hand | $43K | $1.6M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $0 |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 3,238,651
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.2
- Forecast expected
- D +5.9
- Against expectation
- 6.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.