How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Arizona AZ-02
Jonathan Nez vs Eli Crane
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2532
Raised $5.4M against $11.6M for Eli Crane.
- Cash weight 2045
$1.9M in the bank against $2.4M for Eli Crane. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1530
Outside groups spent $1.4M helping Jonathan Nez and $3.2M helping Eli Crane.
- Early vote weight 751
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 1,123,000 ballots in Arizona so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 2.2 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1583
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.11 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 15.5 points of that tide, a tailwind for Jonathan Nez.
- Activity weight 1075
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $100K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2568
Raised $11.6M against $5.4M for Jonathan Nez.
- Cash weight 2055
$2.4M in the bank against $1.9M for Jonathan Nez. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1570
Outside groups spent $3.2M helping Eli Crane and $1.4M helping Jonathan Nez.
- Early vote weight 749
Registered Republicans cast 39% of the 1,123,000 ballots in Arizona so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 2.2 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1518
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.11 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 15.5 points of that tide, a headwind for Eli Crane.
- Activity weight 1025
$178K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Jonathan Nez trails by 1.1 and wins 42% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,953 voters switching sides, or 3,906 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.8 and D +6.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.9M cash against $2.4M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 1,123,000 ballots in Arizona so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 2.2 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Eli Crane's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $3.2M helping Eli Crane and $1.4M helping Jonathan Nez.
- Protect the lead
Eli Crane leads by 1.1 in the forecast and wins 58% of simulations. The cushion is about 3,906 votes; a one point swing is about 1,759 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.4 and R +8.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.4M cash against $1.9M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 39% of the 1,123,000 ballots in Arizona so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 2.2 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Jonathan Nez's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +6.4 and R +8.8
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +13.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Nez | Crane | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $5.4M | $11.6M |
| Spent | $1.7M | $9.5M |
| Cash on hand | $1.9M | $2.4M |
| Outside money for | $1.4M | $3.2M |
| Google ads | $100K | $178K |
The early vote
Arizona, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,123,000
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +1.0
- Forecast expected
- R +3.3
- Against expectation
- 2.2 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-21Meet the Press NOW hosts host
Interviewed former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez about his bid in a Trump plus 15 Arizona district. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-20Katie Hobbs rally in Casa Grande
Rallied supporters at the Landmark Event Center with John Giles, Sen. Mark Kelly, JoAnna Mendoza, Jonathan Nez and Gila River Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis. Source