Brazil votes in a presidential runoff that final polls show is too close to call between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
A CNT/MDA poll released Saturday had Flávio Bolsonaro at 46.3% and Lula at 45%, inside the margin of error. Bolsonaro finished first in the Oct. 4 first round after outrunning his polls.
Brazilians vote Sunday in a runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. A CNT/MDA poll released Oct. 24 had Bolsonaro at 46.3% and Lula at 45%, from 2,032 interviews taken Oct. 21 to 23 with a margin of error of 2.2 points, Al Jazeera reported, citing Reuters. The same poll a week earlier had Bolsonaro at 46.8% and Lula at 45.9%, and a Datafolha survey published Thursday had the two tied at 50% each, two weeks after Bolsonaro led it by four points.
Bolsonaro finished first in the Oct. 4 first round with about 47% to Lula's 45%, beating most final polls, which had Lula about three points ahead, Al Jazeera reported. Analysts told Al Jazeera that right leaning voters consolidated behind Bolsonaro early, and pointed to frustration over food prices and household debt and to the Banco Master banking scandal. Bolsonaro is under investigation over claims he sought money from the banker, which he denies. About 9 million first round votes went to other candidates, and more than 33.4 million registered voters, 28%, did not vote.
In their final debate on Oct. 23, Bolsonaro accused Lula of letting organized crime expand, pushing families into debt and failing to address the high cost of living, and Lula said Bolsonaro "doesn't know what hunger is" and does not know Brazil, Al Jazeera reported. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party won the largest Senate bloc in the first round, according to Al Jazeera.
What is established
- CNT/MDA had Flávio Bolsonaro at 46.3% and Lula at 45%, with a 2.2 point margin of error.
- Datafolha's poll published Oct. 22 had the two tied at 50%.
- Bolsonaro led the first round about 47% to 45%; most final polls had shown Lula ahead.
- About 28% of registered voters abstained in the first round, Al Jazeera reported.
What each side says
Lula let organized crime expand, pushed families into debt and has not addressed the high cost of living.
Bolsonaro "doesn't know what hunger is" and does not know Brazil.
How it was covered
Left 2 reports
Al Jazeera led with a dead heat in the final polls and the crime and cost of living arguments from the last debate, after explaining why the first round polls underestimated the right.