Mike Mazzei is favored to win Oklahoma's governorship.
Cyndi Munson vs Mike Mazzei, an open seat. The model has Mazzei ahead by 5.4 points, winning 77 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,310,623 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Mazzei R | 675,357 | 51.5% |
| Cyndi Munson D | 604,859 | 46.2% |
| Other O | 30,407 | 2.3% |
| Total | 1,310,623 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +4.1 and R +14.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | The polls page average | R +4.0 | |
| Workbench Strategy (D) | 600 LV | 2d | R +4.045 to 49 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Who has endorsed
27 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Oklahoma AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- Donald TrumpPresidentsource
- Kevin StittGovernor of Oklahomasource
- Markwayne MullinHomeland Security Secretary, former U.S. Senatorsource
- Sarah Huckabee SandersGovernor of Arkansassource
- Josh BrecheenU.S. Representative OK-2source
- John O'ConnorFormer Oklahoma Attorney Generalsource
- David McIntoshFormer U.S. representative, IN-02; Club for Growth presidentsource
- Sean KouplenFormer Oklahoma secretary of commercesource
Kyle Kondik: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Oklahoma governor race between Mike Mazzei and Cyndi Munson from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Munson | Mazzei |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 45.0 | 53.3 |
| Women | 53% | 47.9 | 50.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 52.4 | 45.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 45.1 | 53.2 |
| 65+ | 32% | 44.2 | 54.0 |
| RaceWhite | 82% | 43.3 | 55.0 |
| Black | 5% | 78.8 | 19.6 |
| Latino | 4% | 61.2 | 37.2 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 51.7 | 46.5 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 38% | 41.0 | 57.3 |
| White women | 44% | 45.2 | 53.0 |
| Black men | 3% | 74.0 | 24.4 |
| Black women | 3% | 83.2 | 15.1 |
| Latino men | 2% | 59.0 | 39.4 |
| Latino women | 2% | 64.1 | 34.3 |
| All other races | 9% | 51.7 | 46.5 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
77 counties| County | Munson | Mazzei | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 604,860 | 675,356 | 30,407 | 1,310,623 | R +5.4 |
| Oklahoma County | 164,536 | 78,234 | 5,655 | 248,425 | D +34.7 |
| Tulsa County | 124,532 | 89,204 | 3,880 | 217,616 | D +16.2 |
| Cleveland County | 59,965 | 42,323 | 2,491 | 104,779 | D +16.8 |
| Canadian County | 25,948 | 30,929 | 1,445 | 58,322 | R +8.5 |
| Rogers County | 11,926 | 25,311 | 793 | 38,030 | R +35.2 |
| Wagoner County | 10,426 | 19,868 | 644 | 30,938 | R +30.5 |
| Comanche County | 14,434 | 14,175 | 937 | 29,546 | D +0.9 |
| Payne County | 14,172 | 11,446 | 596 | 26,214 | D +10.4 |
| Creek County | 7,676 | 17,019 | 550 | 25,245 | R +37.0 |
| Pottawatomie County | 9,205 | 13,847 | 635 | 23,687 | R +19.6 |
| Grady County | 6,017 | 13,841 | 464 | 20,322 | R +38.5 |
| Muskogee County | 9,172 | 10,560 | 439 | 20,171 | R +6.9 |
| Logan County | 6,674 | 12,395 | 446 | 19,515 | R +29.3 |
| Washington County | 6,249 | 12,573 | 440 | 19,262 | R +32.8 |
| Garfield County | 5,755 | 12,235 | 476 | 18,466 | R +35.1 |
| McClain County | 5,103 | 11,637 | 390 | 17,130 | R +38.1 |
| Osage County | 6,517 | 9,921 | 384 | 16,822 | R +20.2 |
| Carter County | 4,830 | 10,352 | 434 | 15,616 | R +35.4 |
| Cherokee County | 8,003 | 7,007 | 413 | 15,423 | D +6.5 |
| Stephens County | 3,864 | 10,733 | 433 | 15,030 | R +45.7 |
| Delaware County | 4,177 | 10,367 | 356 | 14,900 | R +41.5 |
| Le Flore County | 3,615 | 10,751 | 426 | 14,792 | R +48.2 |
| Pittsburg County | 4,528 | 9,676 | 391 | 14,595 | R +35.3 |
| Bryan County | 4,871 | 9,176 | 358 | 14,405 | R +29.9 |
| Mayes County | 4,535 | 9,220 | 378 | 14,133 | R +33.1 |
| Kay County | 4,917 | 8,715 | 362 | 13,994 | R +27.1 |
| Pontotoc County | 6,072 | 6,305 | 315 | 12,692 | R +1.8 |
| Lincoln County | 3,478 | 8,574 | 370 | 12,422 | R +41.0 |
| Sequoyah County | 3,528 | 8,440 | 342 | 12,310 | R +39.9 |
| Okmulgee County | 4,798 | 6,801 | 247 | 11,846 | R +16.9 |
| McCurtain County | 2,162 | 7,040 | 291 | 9,493 | R +51.4 |
| Garvin County | 2,688 | 6,080 | 205 | 8,973 | R +37.8 |
| Ottawa County | 3,101 | 5,532 | 265 | 8,898 | R +27.3 |
| Custer County | 3,100 | 5,420 | 199 | 8,719 | R +26.6 |
| Caddo County | 3,463 | 4,227 | 187 | 7,877 | R +9.7 |
| McIntosh County | 2,559 | 4,329 | 147 | 7,035 | R +25.2 |
| Seminole County | 2,432 | 4,142 | 173 | 6,747 | R +25.3 |
| Jackson County | 1,682 | 4,891 | 168 | 6,741 | R +47.6 |
| Beckham County | 1,500 | 4,674 | 150 | 6,324 | R +50.2 |
| Woodward County | 1,326 | 4,678 | 134 | 6,138 | R +54.6 |
| Adair County | 1,868 | 3,986 | 186 | 6,040 | R +35.1 |
| Pawnee County | 1,740 | 3,696 | 138 | 5,574 | R +35.1 |
| Kingfisher County | 1,124 | 4,238 | 114 | 5,476 | R +56.9 |
| Marshall County | 1,330 | 3,734 | 114 | 5,178 | R +46.4 |
| Craig County | 1,703 | 3,131 | 108 | 4,942 | R +28.9 |
| Murray County | 1,691 | 2,959 | 124 | 4,774 | R +26.6 |
| Atoka County | 1,117 | 3,425 | 106 | 4,648 | R +49.7 |
| Choctaw County | 1,092 | 3,410 | 129 | 4,631 | R +50.0 |
| Texas County | 832 | 3,437 | 127 | 4,396 | R +59.3 |
| Noble County | 1,386 | 2,603 | 106 | 4,095 | R +29.7 |
| Hughes County | 1,281 | 2,614 | 102 | 3,997 | R +33.4 |
| Haskell County | 1,053 | 2,817 | 70 | 3,940 | R +44.8 |
| Washita County | 885 | 2,907 | 101 | 3,893 | R +51.9 |
| Pushmataha County | 911 | 2,788 | 110 | 3,809 | R +49.3 |
| Nowata County | 893 | 2,689 | 104 | 3,686 | R +48.7 |
| Johnston County | 1,005 | 2,336 | 92 | 3,433 | R +38.8 |
| Latimer County | 1,155 | 2,100 | 93 | 3,348 | R +28.2 |
| Okfuskee County | 1,193 | 2,064 | 82 | 3,339 | R +26.1 |
| Love County | 750 | 2,449 | 78 | 3,277 | R +51.9 |
| Blaine County | 914 | 2,151 | 91 | 3,156 | R +39.2 |
| Woods County | 897 | 2,141 | 81 | 3,119 | R +39.9 |
| Major County | 382 | 2,469 | 69 | 2,920 | R +71.5 |
| Kiowa County | 932 | 1,723 | 51 | 2,706 | R +29.2 |
| Coal County | 602 | 1,431 | 57 | 2,090 | R +39.7 |
| Tillman County | 632 | 1,386 | 59 | 2,077 | R +36.3 |
| Cotton County | 626 | 1,332 | 82 | 2,040 | R +34.6 |
| Alfalfa County | 391 | 1,457 | 54 | 1,902 | R +56.0 |
| Dewey County | 346 | 1,483 | 39 | 1,868 | R +60.9 |
| Jefferson County | 472 | 1,323 | 53 | 1,848 | R +46.0 |
| Beaver County | 183 | 1,588 | 54 | 1,825 | R +77.0 |
| Grant County | 366 | 1,308 | 44 | 1,718 | R +54.8 |
| Greer County | 511 | 998 | 42 | 1,551 | R +31.4 |
| Ellis County | 280 | 1,229 | 34 | 1,543 | R +61.5 |
| Roger Mills County | 202 | 1,195 | 32 | 1,429 | R +69.5 |
| Harper County | 284 | 913 | 34 | 1,231 | R +51.1 |
| Cimarron County | 69 | 729 | 25 | 823 | R +80.2 |
| Harmon County | 226 | 469 | 13 | 708 | R +34.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.