Election Day, Nov 3 6 daysSenate D 85%House D 97%Governors D 86%Forecast updated Oct 28
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6 DAYS OUT
KS SenHamilton D +0.2SC SenAndrews D +0.6KS GovHolscher D +0.9TX SenTalarico D +1.0NE SenOsborn I +1.2GA GovBottoms D +2.1IA SenTurek D +2.2TX GovAbbott R +2.3OH GovActon D +2.4ME SenJackson D +3.0FL GovDonalds R +3.1FL SenMoody R +3.2NV GovFord D +3.2AK SenPeltola D +4.5OH SenBrown D +4.6WI GovCrowley D +5.0
2026 forecast · New Jersey Senate

Cory Booker is all but certain to win New Jersey's Senate seat.

Cory Booker vs Justin Murphy. The model has Booker ahead by 20.7 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +20.7Updated October 28, 2026
Cory Booker
Democrat
59.0%
2,105,644 projected votes
Justin Murphy
Republican
38.3%
1,368,814 projected votes
100%Booker
0%Murphy
Booker all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Booker wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Booker
Model marginD +20.7No polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +30.1 to D +11.62,000 simulations
Projected votes3,571,973Booker 58.9%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

New Jersey Senate by county

Atlantic CountyBergen CountyBurlington CountyCamden CountyCape May CountyCumberland CountyEssex CountyGloucester CountyHudson CountyHunterdon CountyMercer CountyMiddlesex CountyMonmouth CountyMorris CountyOcean CountyPassaic CountySalem CountySomerset CountySussex CountyUnion CountyWarren County
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Essex County: Booker +176,032Hudson County: Booker +101,871Middlesex County: Booker +83,260Union County: Booker +80,999Camden County: Booker +80,851Bergen County: Booker +80,136Mercer County: Booker +64,747Burlington County: Booker +48,948Somerset County: Booker +37,282Passaic County: Booker +25,262Morris County: Booker +16,661Atlantic County: Booker +10,939Monmouth County: Booker +8,152Gloucester County: Booker +4,653Cumberland County: Booker +4,339Hunterdon County: Booker +1,550Ocean County: Murphy +65,467Sussex County: Murphy +10,588Warren County: Murphy +5,500Cape May County: Murphy +5,182Salem County: Murphy +2,114
Booker +825,682 net votes from 16 countiesStatewide D +20.6, a 736,831 vote marginMurphy +88,851 net votes from 5 counties
Play it outMove New Jersey yourself
County what ifSwing any county or region and watch the statewide result moveDemographic swingometerShift turnout and support by group, county by countyEarly vote benchmarksWhere each side needs the early vote to be by now

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Cory BookerDemocrat · 100% to win
59.0%
Justin MurphyRepublican · 0% to win
38.3%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

3,571,973 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Cory Booker D2,105,64458.9%
Justin Murphy R1,368,81438.3%
Veronica Fernandez I47,8651.3%
Nicholas Carducci I18,2170.5%
Michael Estrada I18,2170.5%
Joanne Kuniansky SWP13,2160.4%
Total3,571,973100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +58.5: 1 simulationsD +56.4: 1 simulationsD +54.4: 0 simulationsD +52.3: 0 simulationsD +50.3: 0 simulationsD +48.2: 2 simulationsD +46.2: 1 simulationsD +44.1: 4 simulationsD +42.1: 3 simulationsD +40.0: 8 simulationsD +38.0: 18 simulationsD +35.9: 27 simulationsD +33.9: 45 simulationsD +31.8: 62 simulationsD +29.8: 106 simulationsD +27.7: 125 simulationsD +25.7: 172 simulationsD +23.6: 194 simulationsD +21.6: 217 simulationsD +19.5: 208 simulationsD +17.5: 217 simulationsD +15.4: 182 simulationsD +13.4: 155 simulationsD +11.3: 105 simulationsD +9.3: 65 simulationsD +7.2: 35 simulationsD +5.2: 20 simulationsD +3.1: 14 simulationsD +1.1: 8 simulationsR +1.0: 1 simulationsR +3.0: 0 simulationsR +5.1: 0 simulationsR +7.1: 0 simulationsR +9.2: 1 simulationsR +11.2: 2 simulationsR +13.3: 0 simulationsR +15.3: 0 simulationsR +17.4: 0 simulationsR +19.4: 0 simulationsR +21.5: 1 simulationsD +59.5R +22.5

80 percent of simulations fall between D +30.1 and D +11.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Booker0% Murphy18 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

Polls of the race

PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Booker +20.7
Chance of winning
Cory Booker100%
Justin Murphy0%
Simulated vote
Cory Booker59.0%
Justin Murphy38.3%
Veronica Fernandez1.3%
Nicholas Carducci0.5%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +6.0
FundamentalsD +20.9
With pollsD +20.7

Who has endorsed

34 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Cory Booker28
  • Mikie SherrillGovernor of New Jerseysource
  • GiffordsGun safety groupsource
  • SEIULabor unionsource
  • New Jersey State Building and Construction Trades CouncilBuilding trades unionssource
  • Planned Parenthood Action FundReproductive rights groupsource
  • Sierra ClubEnvironmental groupsource
  • League of Conservation VotersEnvironmental groupsource
  • AIPACPro Israel lobbysource
Justin Murphy6
  • Mike TestaNew Jersey state senator, SD-01, and Cumberland County Republican chairsource
  • Gloucester County Republican OrganizationCounty partysource
  • Mercer County Republican OrganizationCounty partysource
  • Bill SpadeaRadio host, 2025 gubernatorial candidatesource
  • New Jersey Right to Life PACAnti abortion groupsource
  • Camden County Republican OrganizationCounty partysource
Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +25R +25Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +6.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +20.9With pollsno pollsD +20.7

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareBookerMurphy
GenderMen48%53.344.1
Women52%64.333.0
Age18 to 2913%61.336.0
30 to 4421%57.639.7
45 to 6437%58.039.3
65+30%60.237.2
RaceWhite68%52.145.2
Black12%80.816.7
Latino11%67.629.7
Asian and other10%71.026.2
Race and genderWhite men32%44.153.2
White women36%59.038.2
Black men6%76.421.2
Black women6%84.812.8
Latino men6%63.733.6
Latino women5%72.624.6
All other races10%71.026.2

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

21 counties
CountyBookerMurphyOtherTotalMargin
Statewide2,105,6451,368,81497,5143,571,973D +20.6
Bergen County226,550146,4148,041381,005D +21.0
Middlesex County188,104104,8449,423302,371D +27.5
Essex County230,72654,6946,158291,578D +60.4
Monmouth County142,109133,9578,284284,350D +2.9
Ocean County92,751158,2186,995257,964R +25.4
Morris County120,859104,1984,380229,437D +7.3
Hudson County154,26852,3978,436215,101D +47.4
Camden County143,79262,9413,595210,328D +38.4
Union County139,91958,9205,337204,176D +39.7
Burlington County122,56073,6124,026200,198D +24.4
Passaic County95,57470,3126,406172,292D +14.7
Somerset County90,03652,7543,682146,472D +25.4
Mercer County101,88637,1393,438142,463D +45.5
Gloucester County65,96461,3114,093131,368D +3.5
Atlantic County57,48146,5423,124107,147D +10.2
Sussex County26,20936,7973,05366,059R +16.0
Hunterdon County31,68730,1372,45664,280D +2.4
Cumberland County25,54621,2072,05948,812D +8.9
Warren County19,61525,1152,01846,748R +11.8
Cape May County18,78023,9621,10143,843R +11.8
Salem County11,22913,3431,40925,981R +8.1

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

On Point on YouTubeThe New Jersey Senate race, explained on YouTubeForecast breakdowns, the polls and election night coverage on the On Point channel.Subscribe
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.