Josh Green is all but certain to win Hawaii's governorship.
Josh Green vs Gary Cordery. The model has Green ahead by 36.1 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
457,808 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Green D | 311,539 | 68.1% |
| Gary Cordery R | 146,269 | 31.9% |
| Total | 457,808 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +45.4 and D +26.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
Polls of the race
| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | No polls |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Who has endorsed
11 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Hawaii AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- HGEA / AFSCME Local 152Public employees unionsource
- UNITE HERE Local 5Hospitality unionsource
- IBEW Local 1186Electrical workers unionsource
- Operating Engineers Local 3Unionsource
- University of Hawaii Professional AssemblyFaculty unionsource
- Hawaii State Teachers AssociationTeachers unionsource
- Planned Parenthood Alliance AdvocatesReproductive rights groupsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Green | Cordery |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 67.4 | 32.6 |
| Women | 53% | 68.9 | 31.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 11% | 70.4 | 29.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 19% | 66.4 | 33.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 67.3 | 32.7 |
| 65+ | 38% | 69.3 | 30.7 |
| RaceWhite | 36% | 58.1 | 41.9 |
| Black | 2% | 81.7 | 18.3 |
| Latino | 5% | 71.3 | 28.7 |
| Asian and other | 57% | 73.7 | 26.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 16% | 53.0 | 47.0 |
| White women | 19% | 62.4 | 37.6 |
| Black men | 1% | 77.4 | 22.6 |
| Black women | 1% | 85.4 | 14.6 |
| Latino men | 3% | 67.9 | 32.1 |
| Latino women | 2% | 75.9 | 24.1 |
| All other races | 57% | 73.7 | 26.3 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
4 counties| County | Green | Cordery | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 311,539 | 146,269 | 0 | 457,808 | D +36.1 |
| Honolulu County | 206,714 | 99,307 | 0 | 306,021 | D +35.1 |
| Hawaii County | 49,354 | 21,509 | 0 | 70,863 | D +39.3 |
| Maui County | 38,852 | 16,253 | 0 | 55,105 | D +41.0 |
| Kauai County | 16,619 | 9,200 | 0 | 25,819 | D +28.7 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.