The topline
Texas voters are splitting their tickets in On Point Polling's October survey. James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 5.8 points for U.S. Senate, while Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by 2.5 points for governor among likely voters. Down the ballot, Bo French leads Jon Rosenthal by 5.3 points for Railroad Commissioner. All three margins sit inside the margin of error.
- Talarico +5.8 over Paxton for U.S. Senate, +4.5 with undecideds leaned.
- Abbott +2.5 over Hinojosa for governor, +2.0 with undecideds leaned.
- French +5.3 over Rosenthal for Railroad Commissioner, +4.6 with undecideds leaned.
- Crossover runs one way. 12% of 2024 Trump voters back Talarico, while only 2% of Harris voters back Paxton.
- Paxton is the least popular name we tested, 41% approve to 55% disapprove.
- Trump is 4 points underwater in a state he won by nearly 14.
The same likely electorate that gives Abbott the edge for governor and French the lead for Railroad Commissioner puts Talarico ahead for Senate. The difference is Ken Paxton.
Senate: Paxton is the problem
Talarico leads Paxton 48.8% to 43.0% as asked. The 5.5% who are undecided lean 64 to 36 toward Paxton, which trims Talarico's lead to 4.5 points, 50.4% to 45.9%, but does not erase it.
Talarico's lead rests on three things:
- Crossover. 12% of 2024 Trump voters back Talarico and Paxton holds only 76% of them. Just 2% of Harris voters back Paxton.
- Independents. Talarico leads independents 57% to 20%, a 37 point margin.
- Younger voters. Talarico wins voters under 30 by 74% to 22% and voters 30 to 44 by 61% to 29%.
Paxton's strength is where Republicans are always strong in Texas. He wins white voters without a college degree 69% to 22%, voters 65 and older 58% to 38%, and rural and small metro Texas by 17 points.
The gender gap is modest. Talarico wins women 50% to 40% and edges men 48% to 46%. With undecideds leaned, men split evenly. Among all registered voters, Talarico's lead grows to 7.1 points.
Governor: Abbott holds on
Abbott leads Hinojosa 47.7% to 45.2% as asked. Here the undecided voters lean the other way, 58 to 42 toward Hinojosa, which trims Abbott's lead to 2.0 points, 49.0% to 47.0%.
- Abbott holds his base. He wins 85% of Trump voters, 9 points more than Paxton, and loses only 8% of them to Hinojosa.
- Hinojosa wins independents 52% to 31%, but that 21 point margin is 16 points smaller than Talarico's.
- Abbott wins men 50% to 43%, while women split 47% Hinojosa to 46% Abbott.
Both nominees are viewed favorably on balance. Hinojosa is at 50% approve to 43% disapprove, and Abbott is at 51% to 46%. The swing between the two statewide races is about 8 points on the margin, and much of it comes from Republicans and independents who will vote for Abbott but not for Paxton. Among all registered voters, Abbott leads by 2.4 points.
Railroad Commissioner: French leads a low information race
One in nine likely voters has not picked a candidate for Railroad Commissioner, the most of any race we tested. French leads Rosenthal 45.1% to 39.8% as asked. The undecided voters lean slightly toward Rosenthal, about 54 to 46, and with them allocated French leads 49.4% to 44.8%.
This down ballot race tracks closer to party lines than the Senate race:
- French holds 80% of Trump voters, and only 7% back Rosenthal.
- Rosenthal wins 84% of Harris voters, 10 points fewer than Talarico, with more of them still undecided.
- Rosenthal leads independents only 40% to 28%, and Hispanic voters 59% to 21%, well behind Talarico with both groups.
French wins men 48% to 39% and voters 65 and older 58% to 31%. Rosenthal carries Harris County, Dallas and Tarrant, San Antonio and South Texas, while French runs up the margin in the Houston suburbs and rural Texas by about 30 points. Among all registered voters, French leads by 4.6 points.
Age, more than gender, splits Texas
The defining divide in this poll is age. Voters under 45 back both Democrats by wide margins, and voters 45 and older back both Republicans.
By race and education, Talarico runs ahead of Hinojosa in nearly every group. That is the Paxton effect at work.
Where the race is being decided
The big urban counties, San Antonio and South Texas back the Democrats, while the suburban rings and rural Texas back the Republicans.
Early voting opens Monday with the races close
Texas early in person voting opens October 19. Likely voters split almost evenly between voting early and voting on Election Day, and Talarico leads in both groups.
Unlike Ohio, where Democrats have already banked a big early vote lead, almost no Texans have voted yet. Both races are wide open going into the first day of early voting.
Trump, the candidates and the issues
President Trump is 4 points underwater in a state he carried by nearly 14: 47% of likely voters approve, including 29% who strongly approve, and 51% disapprove, including 47% who strongly disapprove. He holds 87% of Republicans, but independents disapprove 69% to 26% and women disapprove 54% to 43%. Men approve 52% to 47%.
Trump is above water on 6 of the 12 issues we tested, from guns and the Second Amendment at the top to the Epstein files at the bottom.
That economy number matters most. The economy, jobs and the cost of living is the top issue for 40% of likely voters, more than twice the next issue, healthcare and Social Security at 16%. Immigration and the border is third at 15%.
How Texas rates the people on and around the ballot, by net approval among likely voters:
Talarico has the best image of anyone we tested and Paxton the worst, a 27 point gap between the two Senate nominees. Cornyn has the most voters with no opinion, 14%.
Data centers are a sleeper issue. 55% of likely voters disapprove of the large data centers being built across Texas, including 34% who strongly disapprove, and 37% approve. Opposition is broad: 69% of Democrats, 66% of independents and 59% of women disapprove, and men disapprove 50% to 46%. Republicans are the only group where approval leads, 52% to 41%.
This is not a Democratic sample
The likely electorate in this poll leans Republican by double digits.
So Talarico's lead is not a story about the sample. It is a story about Republicans crossing over against Paxton, independents breaking toward the Democrat, and younger Texans lining up behind Talarico.
Our model projects turnout of about 9.2 million, roughly 48% of registered voters, and 91% of likely voters say they are certain to vote. Hispanic voters are 27% of the likely electorate, and a third of likely voters are 65 or older.
With early voting starting Monday, all three statewide races are within the margin of error. Abbott and French are running like Republicans usually run in Texas. Paxton is not, and that is why the Senate race is the one to watch.