2026 Senate
Texas Senate average
Talarico vs. Paxton. Talarico leads by 2.4 points in the OnPoint average of 49 public polls, weighted by recency, sample size, voter screen and pollster grade.
Voter sample
Average over time
Each dot is one pollSpreadMargin over time
Trend lines
LOWESS, each poll counts onceAll polls
49 of 49| OnPoint average | Oct 8, 2026 | 49 polls | 48.1 | 45.7 | Talarico+2.4 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)A- | Oct 8, 26 | 1,090LV | 47 | 44 | Talarico+3.5 |
| YouGovC | Oct 5, 26 | 3,625LV | 50 | 44 | Talarico+6.0 |
| Guidant Polling for Public First ActionNR | Oct 5, 26 | 800LV | 47 | 44 | Talarico+3.0 |
| New York Times/SienaNR | Sep 30, 26 | 600LV | 51 | 45 | Talarico+6.0 |
| Rasmussen ReportsA+(adj) | Sep 29, 26 | 1,128LV | 46 | 45 | Talarico+1.0 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyA++ | Sep 28, 26 | 881LV | 51 | 49 | Talarico+2.0 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGovB- | Sep 28, 26 | 850LV | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)NR | Sep 27, 26 | 800LV | 45 | 48 | Paxton+3.0 |
| Big Data PollA+ | Sep 26, 26 | 698LV | 47 | 45 | Talarico+1.9 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)NR | Sep 24, 26 | 856LV | 48 | 48 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D)NR | Sep 22, 26 | 1,007LV | 49 | 44 | Talarico+5.0 |
| Marist UniversityC | Sep 20, 26 | 1,139RV | 50 | 44 | Talarico+6.0 |
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