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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
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Situation room

The wire, the board, the calendar ahead and the watchlist, on one screen. The desk runs on eastern time.

Checking the wireReading the calendar aheadTuesday, October 20ET --:--:--
Generic ballot...Model loadingTrump approval...Model loadingRight track...Model loadingOn Point Polling pollB+18.8LA mayor, Bass margin with leaners allocatedProjected Senate55-4535 seats modeled nightlyRedistrictingR+9·D+6Enacted House nets, JuneNext election...Checking the calendarThe midterms14Days to November 3, 2026

The wire

Today’s contests and the latest pollsElection results
Oct 12
Economist/YouGovTrump approval−28
34/62A · 1,548
Oct 11
Morning ConsultTrump approval−14
42/56RV · 2,204
Oct 9
NewsNationGeneric ballotD+7.0
49/42LV · 974
NewsNationTrump approval−22
38/60LV · 974
Oct 8
Rasmussen ReportsGoldTrump approval−17
41/58LV · 1,500
Oct 7
Noble Predictive InsightsTrump approval−12
43/55RV · 2,527
Oct 6
Financial TimesGeneric ballotD+8.0
52/44LV · 2,275
The Honest PollGeneric ballotD+12.0
53/41LV · n/a
RMG Research*Trump approval−13
43/56RV · 2,000
Oct 5
Economist/YouGovGeneric ballotD+11.0
51/40LV · n/a
Reuters/IpsosGeneric ballotD+7.0
44/37RV · n/a
Morning ConsultTrump approval−16
41/57RV · 2,202
Navigator ResearchTrump approval−26
36/62RV · 1,000
Reuters/IpsosTrump approval−33
32/65A · 3,526

The board

Last 90 days
Generic congressional ballot...Trump net approval...Direction of the country...Projected Senate55 - 4565 holdovers + 35 modeled · faded ticks are this cycle’s seats