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21 DAYS OUT
KS SenMarshall R +0.2KS GovMasterson R +0.3IA SenTurek D +1.2AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NE SenOsborn I +1.9SC SenGraham R +2.5TX GovAbbott R +2.6GA GovBottoms D +3.0ME SenJackson D +3.1TX SenTalarico D +3.2OH GovActon D +3.4NV GovLombardo R +3.5FL SenMoody R +4.1WI GovCrowley D +4.1OH SenBrown D +4.4
2026 forecast

North Carolina Senate forecast

Roy Cooper vs Michael Whatley, an open seat. The model has Cooper ahead by 11.3 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Likely DModel D +11.3Polls D +10.1Updated October 13, 2026

County simulation

100 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +43.3: 1 simulationsD +41.9: 0 simulationsD +40.6: 0 simulationsD +39.2: 0 simulationsD +37.8: 0 simulationsD +36.4: 2 simulationsD +35.1: 0 simulationsD +33.7: 1 simulationsD +32.3: 3 simulationsD +30.9: 5 simulationsD +29.6: 6 simulationsD +28.2: 7 simulationsD +26.8: 15 simulationsD +25.4: 26 simulationsD +24.1: 39 simulationsD +22.7: 78 simulationsD +21.3: 111 simulationsD +19.9: 195 simulationsD +18.6: 350 simulationsD +17.2: 498 simulationsD +15.8: 703 simulationsD +14.4: 874 simulationsD +13.1: 1080 simulationsD +11.7: 1200 simulationsD +10.3: 1185 simulationsD +8.9: 1063 simulationsD +7.6: 868 simulationsD +6.2: 668 simulationsD +4.8: 408 simulationsD +3.4: 267 simulationsD +2.1: 147 simulationsD +0.7: 84 simulationsR +0.7: 48 simulationsR +2.1: 26 simulationsR +3.4: 12 simulationsR +4.8: 11 simulationsR +6.2: 5 simulationsR +7.6: 7 simulationsR +8.9: 5 simulationsR +10.3: 2 simulationsD +44.0R +11.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.3 and D +5.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +10.1
Trafalgar Group (R)1,091 LV3dD +9.1
East Carolina University810 LV10dD +7.5
Big Data Poll642 LV14dD +12.0
Quantus Insights686 LV21dD +6.8
Rasmussen Reports1,047 LV21dD +6.6
AARP (Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research)1,115 LV23dD +10.6
Opinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North Carolina857 LV23dD +8.1
YouGov3,745 LV25dD +11.1
InsiderAdvantage (R)1,200 LV26dD +6.7
High Point University706 LV27dD +8.1
Catawba College/YouGov885 LV28dD +11.2
Harper Polling (R)608 LV28dD +14.8
The Trafalgar Group (R)1,084 LV33dD +7.1
East Carolina University675 LV40dD +8.0
Elon University/YouGov565 LV43dD +10.2
High Point University/YouGov660 LV62dD +4.1
Harper Polling (R)600 LV64dD +12.7
Change Research (D)915 LV68dD +5.9
Change Research (D)967 RV73dD +8.2
Elon University/YouGov466 LV74dD +10.1
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)1,005 RV78dD +7.3
Public Policy Polling (D)759 LV94dD +2.8
New York Times/Siena University601 LV108dD +6.6
Catawba College/YouGov905 LV125dD +13.2
Harper Polling (R)600 LV155dD +10.8

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareCooperWhatley
GenderMen47%50.047.3
Women54%58.039.3
Age18 to 2914%57.240.1
30 to 4422%54.143.3
45 to 6434%53.344.0
65+30%54.343.0
RaceWhite70%43.354.0
Black20%85.512.0
Latino5%63.434.0
Asian and other5%73.124.0
Race and genderWhite men32%37.459.9
White women38%48.149.1
Black men10%82.115.4
Black women11%88.59.0
Latino men2%62.834.5
Latino women2%63.933.5
All other races5%73.124.0