2026 forecast
Minnesota Senate forecast
Peggy Flanagan vs Michele Tafoya, an open seat. The model has Flanagan ahead by 8.7 points, winning 94 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
87 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.2 and D +1.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +5.3 | |
| Mason-Dixon for the Star Tribune | 800 LV | 6d | D +5.1 |
| Morning Consult | 1,000 RV | 6d | D +3.9 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 856 LV | 6d | D +4.3 |
| GQR (D) | 800 LV | 9d | D +8.3 |
| Big Data Poll | 622 LV | 13d | D +1.9 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 14d | D +1.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | 833 LV | 28d | D +4.7 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 654 LV | 29d | R +0.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 720 LV | 33d | D +5.7 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | 1,201 LV | 41d | D +1.5 |
| Deep Root Analytics (R) | 597 RV | 56d | D +6.6 |
| KTSP/SurveyUSA | 661 LV | 57d | D +5.0 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Flanagan | Tafoya |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 47.9 | 48.5 |
| Women | 54% | 56.5 | 40.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 56.1 | 40.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 52.3 | 44.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 49.9 | 46.5 |
| 65+ | 29% | 54.0 | 42.5 |
| RaceWhite | 85% | 48.1 | 48.4 |
| Black | 5% | 87.5 | 9.2 |
| Latino | 3% | 68.3 | 28.2 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 76.3 | 19.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 39% | 42.4 | 54.1 |
| White women | 47% | 52.8 | 43.7 |
| Black men | 2% | 86.4 | 10.2 |
| Black women | 3% | 88.4 | 8.3 |
| Latino men | 2% | 65.5 | 31.0 |
| Latino women | 2% | 71.1 | 25.4 |
| All other races | 7% | 76.3 | 19.6 |