2026 forecast
Arizona Governor forecast
Katie Hobbs vs Andy Biggs. The model has Hobbs ahead by 10.8 points, winning 97 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
15 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.3 and D +3.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +6.7 | |
| GrayHouse for Norton (R) | 550 LV | 5d | D +8.3 |
| GQR for Hobbs (D) | 600 LV | 9d | D +3.3 |
| Equis Research | 1,214 RV | 34d | D +6.3 |
| Arizona State University | 1,300 RV | 39d | D +12.0 |
| NextGen Polling (R) | 1,627 LV | 55d | D +3.3 |
| HighGround, Inc. | 400 LV | 56d | D +14.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 780 LV | 57d | D +7.7 |
| Kreate Strategies (R) | 900 LV | 58d | D +6.1 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 923 LV | 61d | D +12.4 |
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 61d | D +5.2 |
| Grayhouse (R) | 600 LV | 63d | D +6.3 |
| The Tarrance Group (R) | 600 LV | 75d | D +6.2 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan | 913 LV | 77d | D +7.6 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 996 RV | 159d | D +3.6 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | 1,159 LV | 172d | D +9.5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 1,023 RV | 229d | D +6.6 |
| Center for Excellence in Polling | 519 LV | 262d | D +8.9 |
| NXTGenP (R) | 2,725 LV | 300d | D +19.9 |
| Emerson College | 850 RV | 337d | D +2.5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 948 RV | 421d | D +1.6 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 1,026 RV | 515d | D +1.6 |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) | 501 LV | 552d | D +6.3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 1,006 RV | 607d | D +1.6 |
| Kreate Strategies (R) | 924 LV | 613d | D +0.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Hobbs | Biggs |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 50.1 | 47.4 |
| Women | 53% | 57.9 | 39.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 57.5 | 40.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 52.2 | 45.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 52.6 | 45.0 |
| 65+ | 32% | 55.6 | 42.0 |
| RaceWhite | 67% | 45.9 | 51.7 |
| Black | 5% | 84.6 | 13.0 |
| Latino | 20% | 66.5 | 31.1 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 72.8 | 24.2 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 31% | 39.8 | 57.8 |
| White women | 36% | 51.2 | 46.4 |
| Black men | 2% | 82.5 | 15.2 |
| Black women | 2% | 86.5 | 11.2 |
| Latino men | 10% | 64.0 | 33.6 |
| Latino women | 10% | 68.9 | 28.7 |
| All other races | 9% | 72.8 | 24.2 |