2026 forecast
Vermont Governor forecast
Amanda Janoo vs Phil Scott. The model has Scott ahead by 11.5 points, winning 97 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
14 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +3.7 and R +19.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +4.3 | |
| State Navigate | 948 LV | 9d | R +4.3 |
| Braun Research | 817 LV | 22d | R +9.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 829 LV | 22d | D +6.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 835 LV | 22d | D +6.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 954 LV | 85d | R +10.8 |
| University of New Hampshire | 887 LV | 112d | R +14.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Janoo | Scott |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 44% | 38.3 | 58.0 |
| Women | 56% | 45.5 | 50.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 42.5 | 53.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 39.6 | 56.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 40.3 | 56.0 |
| 65+ | 32% | 46.2 | 50.0 |
| RaceWhite | 93% | 40.4 | 55.9 |
| Latino | 2% | 63.1 | 33.5 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 70.3 | 25.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 40% | 35.7 | 60.6 |
| White women | 53% | 43.9 | 52.4 |
| All other races | 4% | 70.3 | 25.6 |