2026 forecast
Tennessee Senate forecast
Marquita Bradshaw vs Bill Hagerty. The model has Hagerty ahead by 19.2 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
95 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +12.4 and R +25.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +22.2 | |
| Targoz Market Research | 1,157 RV | 48d | R +18.3 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Bradshaw | Hagerty |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 33.0 | 60.3 |
| Women | 53% | 40.7 | 52.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 39.6 | 53.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 38.4 | 54.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 35.3 | 58.1 |
| 65+ | 30% | 37.0 | 56.5 |
| RaceWhite | 79% | 28.0 | 65.3 |
| Black | 15% | 77.9 | 16.0 |
| Latino | 3% | 50.6 | 42.7 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 59.8 | 32.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 37% | 23.2 | 70.1 |
| White women | 42% | 32.1 | 61.1 |
| Black men | 7% | 74.5 | 19.2 |
| Black women | 8% | 80.8 | 13.1 |
| Latino men | 1% | 48.8 | 44.3 |
| Latino women | 1% | 52.3 | 41.2 |
| All other races | 4% | 59.8 | 32.3 |