2026 forecast
Tennessee Governor forecast
Jerri Green vs Marsha Blackburn, an open seat. The model has Blackburn ahead by 11.3 points, winning 97 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
95 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +4.5 and R +17.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +13.7 | |
| TargetSmart (D) | 600 LV | 31d | R +10.8 |
| TargetSmart | 600 LV | 31d | R +9.6 |
| Targoz Market Research | 601 LV | 48d | R +19.4 |
| Targoz Market Research | 1,200 RV | 169d | R +22.4 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Green | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 35.9 | 55.1 |
| Women | 53% | 43.3 | 47.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 43.5 | 47.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 41.5 | 49.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 37.8 | 53.3 |
| 65+ | 30% | 39.2 | 52.1 |
| RaceWhite | 79% | 31.4 | 59.8 |
| Black | 15% | 77.4 | 13.2 |
| Latino | 3% | 52.8 | 37.9 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 62.1 | 26.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 37% | 26.7 | 64.6 |
| White women | 42% | 35.5 | 55.6 |
| Black men | 7% | 74.6 | 15.9 |
| Black women | 8% | 79.8 | 10.9 |
| Latino men | 1% | 51.1 | 39.3 |
| Latino women | 1% | 54.4 | 36.5 |
| All other races | 4% | 62.1 | 26.9 |