2026 forecast
South Carolina Governor forecast
Jermaine Johnson vs Alan Wilson, an open seat. The model has Wilson ahead by 6.1 points, winning 83 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
46 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +2.3 and R +14.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +12.1 | |
| FITSNews/Rick Quinn | 638 RV | 10d | R +9.8 |
| Resonance Media | 638 RV | 10d | R +9.8 |
| Hart Research (D) | 600 RV | 59d | R +8.6 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 577 RV | 88d | R +8.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Johnson | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 41.2 | 55.2 |
| Women | 53% | 48.7 | 47.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 45.8 | 50.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 43.6 | 52.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 44.2 | 52.2 |
| 65+ | 33% | 46.8 | 49.7 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 32.2 | 64.2 |
| Black | 24% | 79.0 | 17.5 |
| Latino | 3% | 52.5 | 43.9 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 61.2 | 34.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 32% | 27.0 | 69.4 |
| White women | 37% | 36.7 | 59.6 |
| Black men | 12% | 74.8 | 21.7 |
| Black women | 12% | 83.0 | 13.4 |
| Latino men | 2% | 52.2 | 44.1 |
| Latino women | 2% | 52.7 | 43.7 |
| All other races | 4% | 61.2 | 34.3 |