2026 forecast
Rhode Island Senate forecast
Jack Reed vs Raymond McKay. The model has Reed ahead by 30.9 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
5 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +38.1 and D +23.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +23.6 | |
| University of New Hampshire | 598 LV | 22d | D +20.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 598 LV | 22d | D +20.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 750 LV | 50d | D +20.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 664 LV | 112d | D +17.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 556 LV | 176d | D +18.3 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Reed | McKay |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 57.7 | 36.0 |
| Women | 55% | 66.2 | 27.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 64.9 | 28.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 60.1 | 33.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 60.3 | 33.4 |
| 65+ | 30% | 64.8 | 29.2 |
| RaceWhite | 81% | 58.7 | 35.2 |
| Black | 5% | 86.8 | 6.4 |
| Latino | 9% | 71.5 | 21.4 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 78.3 | 14.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 52.8 | 41.1 |
| White women | 45% | 63.5 | 30.4 |
| Black men | 2% | 85.2 | 7.8 |
| Black women | 2% | 88.2 | 5.1 |
| Latino men | 5% | 69.3 | 23.5 |
| Latino women | 5% | 73.6 | 19.4 |
| All other races | 6% | 78.3 | 14.1 |