2026 forecast
Rhode Island Governor forecast
Helena Foulkes vs Aaron Guckian, an open seat. The model has Foulkes ahead by 23.0 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
5 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +28.5 and D +17.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +39.3 | |
| Opinion Diagnostics | 800 LV | 18d | D +22.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 598 LV | 22d | D +27.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 598 LV | 22d | D +27.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 750 LV | 50d | D +25.1 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 52d | D +27.7 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Foulkes | Guckian |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 44.1 | 28.6 |
| Women | 55% | 51.0 | 21.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 49.3 | 22.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 46.3 | 26.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 46.3 | 26.4 |
| 65+ | 30% | 50.0 | 23.0 |
| RaceWhite | 81% | 44.9 | 27.8 |
| Black | 5% | 69.8 | 5.2 |
| Latino | 9% | 56.3 | 17.7 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 58.3 | 10.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 40.3 | 32.6 |
| White women | 45% | 48.6 | 24.0 |
| Black men | 2% | 68.2 | 6.4 |
| Black women | 2% | 71.2 | 4.1 |
| Latino men | 5% | 54.4 | 19.4 |
| Latino women | 5% | 58.1 | 16.1 |
| All other races | 6% | 58.3 | 10.6 |