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21 DAYS OUT
KS SenMarshall R +0.2KS GovMasterson R +0.3IA SenTurek D +1.2AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NE SenOsborn I +1.9SC SenGraham R +2.5TX GovAbbott R +2.6GA GovBottoms D +3.0ME SenJackson D +3.1TX SenTalarico D +3.2OH GovActon D +3.4NV GovLombardo R +3.5FL SenMoody R +4.1WI GovCrowley D +4.1OH SenBrown D +4.4
2026 forecast

New York Governor forecast

Kathy Hochul vs Bruce Blakeman. The model has Hochul ahead by 14.2 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +14.2Polls D +12.5Updated October 13, 2026

County simulation

62 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +37.1: 2 simulationsD +35.2: 2 simulationsD +33.3: 5 simulationsD +31.4: 9 simulationsD +29.6: 33 simulationsD +27.7: 67 simulationsD +25.8: 114 simulationsD +23.9: 286 simulationsD +22.1: 445 simulationsD +20.2: 755 simulationsD +18.3: 1089 simulationsD +16.4: 1289 simulationsD +14.6: 1428 simulationsD +12.7: 1320 simulationsD +10.8: 1076 simulationsD +8.9: 802 simulationsD +7.1: 529 simulationsD +5.2: 341 simulationsD +3.3: 172 simulationsD +1.4: 109 simulationsR +0.4: 55 simulationsR +2.3: 35 simulationsR +4.2: 20 simulationsR +6.1: 8 simulationsR +7.9: 3 simulationsR +9.8: 0 simulationsR +11.7: 2 simulationsR +13.6: 0 simulationsR +15.4: 0 simulationsR +17.3: 1 simulationsR +19.2: 1 simulationsR +21.1: 0 simulationsR +22.9: 0 simulationsR +24.8: 0 simulationsR +26.7: 0 simulationsR +28.6: 0 simulationsR +30.4: 1 simulationsR +32.3: 0 simulationsR +34.2: 0 simulationsR +36.1: 1 simulationsD +38.0R +37.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +21.0 and D +7.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +12.5
Emerson College/PIX11900 LV8dD +13.3
Marist College1,361 RV9dD +8.4
co/efficient (R)1,046 LV18dD +10.8
Quinnipiac University1,026 LV23dD +18.3
Quinnipiac University1,026 LV23dD +18.3
Siena College1,144 LV26dD +8.7
Siena College1,144 LV26dD +8.7
McLaughlin & Associates (R)800 LV43dD +7.3
Concord Public Opinion Partners505 LV53dD +14.6
Siena College811 LV68dD +9.7
Red Oak Strategic (R)2,000 RV93dD +6.9
co/efficient (R)1,085 LV103dD +9.8
Siena College1,120 RV112dD +20.0
Pollfinity Research229 RV121dD +10.7
Siena College802 RV258dD +26.0
John Zogby Strategies844 LV278dD +13.8
Siena College801 RV305dD +25.0
J.L. Partners500 LV337dD +11.9
Siena College800 RV474dD +25.0
GrayHouse600 RV537dD +8.7

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareHochulBlakeman
GenderMen48%51.847.0
Women52%60.738.0
Age18 to 2915%56.542.2
30 to 4422%54.044.7
45 to 6434%55.643.1
65+30%59.239.6
RaceWhite65%45.453.2
Black13%86.612.3
Latino13%68.630.4
Asian and other9%74.624.0
Race and genderWhite men30%38.360.4
White women35%51.647.0
Black men6%84.914.0
Black women7%88.110.8
Latino men7%66.332.7
Latino women6%71.027.9
All other races9%74.624.0