2026 forecast
Mississippi Senate forecast
Scott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith. The model has Hyde-Smith ahead by 5.8 points, winning 87 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
82 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +0.9 and R +12.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +8.8 | |
| Data for Progress (D) | 1,018 LV | 59d | R +7.3 |
| Impact Research (D) | 500 LV | 184d | R +4.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Colom | Hyde-Smith |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 39.6 | 52.8 |
| Women | 52% | 46.6 | 45.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 43.4 | 48.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 42.7 | 49.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 42.2 | 50.1 |
| 65+ | 31% | 44.8 | 47.8 |
| RaceWhite | 60% | 24.0 | 67.8 |
| Black | 36% | 74.8 | 18.9 |
| Latino | 2% | 42.8 | 48.5 |
| Asian and other | 3% | 51.5 | 38.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 28% | 19.7 | 72.1 |
| White women | 32% | 27.8 | 63.9 |
| Black men | 17% | 70.7 | 22.9 |
| Black women | 19% | 78.7 | 15.1 |
| All other races | 3% | 51.5 | 38.6 |