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21 DAYS OUT
KS SenMarshall R +0.2KS GovMasterson R +0.3IA SenTurek D +1.2AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NE SenOsborn I +1.9SC SenGraham R +2.5TX GovAbbott R +2.6GA GovBottoms D +3.0ME SenJackson D +3.1TX SenTalarico D +3.2OH GovActon D +3.4NV GovLombardo R +3.5FL SenMoody R +4.1WI GovCrowley D +4.1OH SenBrown D +4.4
2026 forecast

Michigan Senate forecast

Abdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers, an open seat. The model has El-Sayed ahead by 5.3 points, winning 85 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Lean DModel D +5.3Polls D +3.9Updated October 13, 2026

County simulation

83 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +63.9: 1 simulationsD +61.7: 0 simulationsD +59.4: 0 simulationsD +57.2: 0 simulationsD +55.0: 0 simulationsD +52.8: 0 simulationsD +50.5: 0 simulationsD +48.3: 0 simulationsD +46.1: 0 simulationsD +43.9: 0 simulationsD +41.6: 0 simulationsD +39.4: 0 simulationsD +37.2: 0 simulationsD +35.0: 0 simulationsD +32.7: 0 simulationsD +30.5: 0 simulationsD +28.3: 1 simulationsD +26.1: 2 simulationsD +23.8: 9 simulationsD +21.6: 29 simulationsD +19.4: 67 simulationsD +17.2: 131 simulationsD +14.9: 291 simulationsD +12.7: 596 simulationsD +10.5: 1013 simulationsD +8.3: 1411 simulationsD +6.0: 1686 simulationsD +3.8: 1652 simulationsD +1.6: 1362 simulationsR +0.6: 881 simulationsR +2.9: 456 simulationsR +5.1: 250 simulationsR +7.3: 86 simulationsR +9.5: 49 simulationsR +11.8: 15 simulationsR +14.0: 10 simulationsR +16.2: 1 simulationsR +18.4: 0 simulationsR +20.7: 0 simulationsR +22.9: 1 simulationsD +65.0R +24.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +12.0 and R +1.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +3.9
InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV3dD +2.0
Wedgewood Polls867 LV4dD +6.7
Quantus Insights762 LV7dD +2.8
Guidant Polling for Public First Action600 LV8dD +4.2
YouGov3,949 LV9dD +0.1
Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit682 LV12dD +4.0
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising (D)483 RV12dD +6.0
Trafalgar Group (R)1,085 LV13dD +3.0
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company1,028 LV15dD +0.4
NPR/Marist1,200 RV16dD +4.4
Big Data Poll678 LV19dD +4.3
co/efficient (R)843 LV20dD +3.9
GBAO (D)800 LV21dD +2.5
New York Times/Siena University613 LV21dD +4.6
Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D)600 LV22dD +6.1
Suffolk University500 LV23dD +5.8
Torchlight Strategies (R)643 LV24dD +0.7
InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV26dD +1.9
Emerson College1,000 LV29dD +3.3
The Washington Post/SSPG803 LV29dD +2.3
Trafalgar Group (R)1,079 LV34dD +2.1
SSRS843 LV37dD +2.0
Glengariff Group600 LV40dR +1.0
Abacus Data332 LV46dD +2.5
EPIC-MRA600 LV46dD +4.6

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareEl-SayedRogers
GenderMen46%47.050.1
Women54%54.742.3
Age18 to 2915%54.742.3
30 to 4421%50.846.2
45 to 6434%48.548.5
65+31%52.744.4
RaceWhite79%43.753.4
Black12%86.510.7
Latino3%64.932.2
Asian and other5%73.123.6
Race and genderWhite men36%38.159.1
White women44%48.448.7
Black men6%85.112.1
Black women6%87.79.5
Latino men2%62.035.2
Latino women2%67.829.3
All other races5%73.123.6