2026 forecast
Michigan Governor forecast
Jocelyn Benson vs John James, an open seat. The model has Benson ahead by 10.7 points, winning 98 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
83 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.4 and D +3.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +9.8 | |
| Wedgewood Polls | 867 LV | 4d | D +10.7 |
| YouGov | 3,949 LV | 9d | D +2.1 |
| Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit | 682 LV | 12d | D +6.8 |
| Z to A Research (D) | 483 LV | 12d | D +8.7 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,028 LV | 15d | D +8.4 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | 800 LV | 16d | D +5.0 |
| Marist University | 1,235 RV | 16d | D +9.5 |
| NPR/Marist | 1,200 RV | 16d | D +9.5 |
| co/efficient (R) | 843 LV | 20d | D +6.9 |
| co/efficient (R) | 843 LV | 20d | D +6.9 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 605 LV | 21d | D +4.7 |
| Beacon Research (D)/Cygnal (R) | 600 LV | 22d | D +5.3 |
| Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) | 600 LV | 22d | D +8.1 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 23d | D +15.9 |
| Torchlight Strategies (R) | 643 LV | 24d | D +2.6 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 29d | D +8.3 |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | 803 LV | 29d | D +11.3 |
| SSRS | 843 LV | 37d | D +8.0 |
| Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 40d | D +5.0 |
| EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 46d | D +4.1 |
| Michigan State University/YouGov | 779 LV | 54d | D +8.1 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan | 877 LV | 63d | D +4.6 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan | 1,006 RV | 64d | D +4.7 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | 1,215 LV | 64d | D +15.5 |
| Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 280d | R +1.3 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Benson | James |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 50.1 | 47.6 |
| Women | 54% | 57.7 | 40.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 58.4 | 39.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 54.1 | 43.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 51.5 | 46.2 |
| 65+ | 31% | 55.3 | 42.4 |
| RaceWhite | 79% | 46.7 | 50.9 |
| Black | 12% | 88.9 | 9.1 |
| Latino | 3% | 67.7 | 30.1 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 76.7 | 20.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 41.1 | 56.6 |
| White women | 43% | 51.4 | 46.2 |
| Black men | 6% | 87.7 | 10.3 |
| Black women | 6% | 90.0 | 8.1 |
| Latino men | 2% | 64.7 | 33.0 |
| Latino women | 2% | 70.6 | 27.1 |
| All other races | 5% | 76.7 | 20.7 |