2026 forecast
Maryland Governor forecast
Wes Moore vs Dan Cox. The model has Moore ahead by 33.7 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
24 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +39.3 and D +28.0. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +35.4 | |
| UMBC Institute of Politics | 776 LV | 16d | D +26.6 |
| Zenith Research | 800 LV | 71d | D +27.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Moore | Cox |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 56.7 | 31.0 |
| Women | 53% | 64.3 | 23.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 61.2 | 26.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 58.9 | 29.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 35% | 60.8 | 27.1 |
| 65+ | 28% | 62.1 | 25.9 |
| RaceWhite | 56% | 46.5 | 40.8 |
| Black | 29% | 82.6 | 6.4 |
| Latino | 6% | 69.3 | 19.2 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 73.1 | 13.2 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 26% | 40.0 | 47.4 |
| White women | 30% | 52.2 | 35.1 |
| Black men | 13% | 81.5 | 7.2 |
| Black women | 16% | 83.6 | 5.6 |
| Latino men | 3% | 67.5 | 21.1 |
| Latino women | 3% | 71.3 | 17.2 |
| All other races | 9% | 73.1 | 13.2 |