2026 forecast
Massachusetts Governor forecast
Maura Healey vs Michael Minogue. The model has Healey ahead by 26.3 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
14 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +33.6 and D +18.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +23.5 | |
| MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth Beacon | 800 LV | 21d | D +21.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 564 LV | 22d | D +16.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 564 LV | 22d | D +16.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 881 LV | 50d | D +24.2 |
| UMass Amherst / YouGov | 800 RV | 62d | D +19.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 623 LV | 112d | D +19.2 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 123d | D +23.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Healey | Minogue |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 57.2 | 41.0 |
| Women | 54% | 66.5 | 31.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 63.7 | 34.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 59.6 | 38.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 60.8 | 37.5 |
| 65+ | 28% | 65.4 | 32.9 |
| RaceWhite | 78% | 57.1 | 41.1 |
| Black | 6% | 88.9 | 9.4 |
| Latino | 8% | 72.8 | 25.4 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 82.5 | 15.5 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 35% | 50.4 | 47.9 |
| White women | 43% | 62.6 | 35.7 |
| Black men | 3% | 86.8 | 11.5 |
| Black women | 3% | 90.7 | 7.6 |
| Latino men | 4% | 70.7 | 27.4 |
| Latino women | 4% | 74.8 | 23.4 |
| All other races | 9% | 82.5 | 15.5 |