2026 forecast
Illinois Senate forecast
Juliana Stratton vs Don Tracy, an open seat. The model has Stratton ahead by 21.3 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
102 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +29.7 and D +12.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +13.9 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly (D) | 569 LV | 12d | D +11.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Stratton | Tracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 55.5 | 41.7 |
| Women | 54% | 62.5 | 34.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 62.4 | 34.7 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 58.7 | 38.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 57.5 | 39.7 |
| 65+ | 28% | 60.2 | 37.2 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 49.0 | 48.5 |
| Black | 14% | 89.4 | 7.5 |
| Latino | 11% | 74.1 | 22.8 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 80.5 | 16.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 31% | 43.3 | 54.1 |
| White women | 38% | 53.6 | 43.8 |
| Black men | 6% | 88.4 | 8.5 |
| Black women | 7% | 90.2 | 6.7 |
| Latino men | 5% | 71.3 | 25.7 |
| Latino women | 6% | 76.8 | 20.1 |
| All other races | 7% | 80.5 | 16.1 |