2026 forecast
Illinois Governor forecast
JB Pritzker vs Darren Bailey. The model has Pritzker ahead by 24.6 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
102 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +31.7 and D +17.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +22.9 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly | 569 LV | 12d | D +20.1 |
| Victory Research | 1,208 LV | 322d | D +19.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Pritzker | Bailey |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 55.6 | 38.1 |
| Women | 54% | 62.3 | 31.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 62.7 | 31.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 58.9 | 35.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 57.4 | 36.3 |
| 65+ | 28% | 59.7 | 34.0 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 49.1 | 44.3 |
| Black | 14% | 88.7 | 6.3 |
| Latino | 11% | 74.3 | 20.5 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 79.2 | 14.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 31% | 43.8 | 49.7 |
| White women | 38% | 53.5 | 39.8 |
| Black men | 6% | 87.8 | 7.1 |
| Black women | 7% | 89.4 | 5.6 |
| Latino men | 5% | 71.6 | 23.2 |
| Latino women | 6% | 76.8 | 17.9 |
| All other races | 7% | 79.2 | 14.3 |