2026 forecast
California Governor forecast
Xavier Becerra vs Steve Hilton, an open seat. The model has Becerra ahead by 13.7 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
58 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +20.4 and D +6.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +11.3 | |
| David Wolfson for Hilton (R) | 1,020 RV | 11d | D +9.5 |
| Manhattan Institute | 1,000 LV | 12d | D +18.9 |
| Independent Voter Project | 2,906 LV | 15d | D +11.9 |
| Berkeley IGS | 4,512 LV | 23d | D +22.4 |
| SurveyUSA | 742 LV | 23d | D +22.0 |
| UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/Politico | 1,983 LV | 29d | D +18.0 |
| PPIC | 1,103 LV | 33d | D +21.0 |
| Berkeley IGS | 2,310 LV | 65d | D +15.3 |
| PPIC | 1,003 LV | 99d | D +24.0 |
| Kreate Strategies | 900 LV | 118d | D +24.5 |
| CEPP | 735 LV | 140d | D +22.6 |
| Berkeley IGS | 8,578 RV | 142d | D +18.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Becerra | Hilton |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 53.1 | 45.3 |
| Women | 51% | 58.8 | 39.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 54.7 | 43.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 24% | 52.8 | 45.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 55.9 | 42.6 |
| 65+ | 27% | 60.0 | 38.5 |
| RaceWhite | 47% | 43.2 | 55.3 |
| Black | 7% | 81.3 | 17.3 |
| Latino | 27% | 59.6 | 38.9 |
| Asian and other | 19% | 74.7 | 23.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 22% | 36.2 | 62.3 |
| White women | 26% | 49.1 | 49.4 |
| Black men | 3% | 77.7 | 20.9 |
| Black women | 4% | 84.4 | 14.2 |
| Latino men | 14% | 57.1 | 41.4 |
| Latino women | 13% | 62.3 | 36.2 |
| All other races | 19% | 74.7 | 23.6 |