2026 forecast
Alabama Governor forecast
Doug Jones vs Tommy Tuberville, an open seat. The model has Tuberville ahead by 12.1 points, winning 97 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
67 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +4.4 and R +19.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +12.4 | |
| Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R) | 800 RV | 18d | R +10.9 |
| yes. every kid. | 601 LV | 94d | R +8.5 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Jones | Tuberville |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 39.2 | 58.6 |
| Women | 52% | 46.2 | 51.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 45.1 | 52.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 43.2 | 54.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 41.4 | 56.4 |
| 65+ | 31% | 43.2 | 54.6 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 28.1 | 69.6 |
| Black | 25% | 80.3 | 17.7 |
| Latino | 2% | 47.9 | 49.8 |
| Asian and other | 3% | 60.8 | 36.5 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 23.6 | 74.2 |
| White women | 37% | 32.2 | 65.5 |
| Black men | 12% | 76.7 | 21.2 |
| Black women | 13% | 83.6 | 14.4 |
| Latino men | 1% | 46.6 | 51.0 |
| Latino women | 1% | 49.1 | 48.7 |
| All other races | 3% | 60.8 | 36.5 |