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TPSI Situation Roomlive monitor · the wire, the board, the watchlistWednesday, July 22

situation room

checking the wire·reading the calendar ahead
generic ballot—model loadingtrump approval—model loadingright track—model loadingtpsi pollB+18.8bass margin · leaners allocatedprojected senate53–4735 seats modeled nightlyredistrictingR+9·D+6enacted house nets · junenext election…checking the calendarthe midterms104days · november 3, 2026
01The wiretoday’s contests and the latest polls, one stream · ◆ gold-standardElection results →
May 28
Rasmussen Reports ◆Trump approval−12
43—55LV · 1,500 · gold-standard
May 27
Big Data Poll ◆Generic ballotD+13.0
51—38LV · 2,784 · gold-standard
Big Data Poll ◆Trump approval−16
41—57LV · 2,784 · gold-standard
May 26
Economist/YouGovGeneric ballotD+5.0
46—41RV · 1,397
Economist/YouGovTrump approval−22
38—60RV · 1,397
RMG ResearchTrump approval−12
43—55RV · 3,000
May 25
Emerson ◆Generic ballotD+9.0
50—41LV · 1,000 · gold-standard
Emerson ◆Trump approval−16
39—55LV · 1,000 · gold-standard
May 21
RMG ResearchTrump approval−15
42—57RV · 3,000
May 20
Rasmussen Reports ◆Generic ballotD+6.0
47—41LV · 2,161 · gold-standard
May 18
Data for ProgressGeneric ballotD+8.0
51—43LV · 1,149
Economist/YouGovGeneric ballotD+3.0
46—43RV · 1,380
Reuters/IpsosGeneric ballotD+1.0
39—38RV · 984
QuinnipiacGeneric ballotD+11.0
50—39RV · 1,106
02The calendar aheadevery election day between now and the midtermsFull calendar →
03The boardthe desk’s live model — ninety days of it
generic congressional ballot—
trump net approval—
direction of the country—
projected senate53–4765 holdovers + 35 modeled · faded ticks are this cycle’s seats
04The watchlistthe five tightest senate races in the modelAll 35 ratings →
01NENebraskaD+0.2incumbent02SCSouth CarolinaR+0.5incumbent03IAIowaR+0.7open seat04OHOhioD+0.9incumbent05TXTexasD+1.7incumbent