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TPSI Situation Roomlive monitor · the wire, the board, the watchlistThursday, August 27

situation room

checking the wire·reading the calendar ahead
generic ballot—model loadingtrump approval—model loadingright track—model loadingtpsi pollB+18.8bass margin · leaners allocatedprojected senate53–4735 seats modeled nightlyredistrictingR+9·D+6enacted house nets · junenext election…checking the calendarthe midterms67days · november 3, 2026
01The wiretoday’s contests and the latest polls, one stream · ◆ gold-standardElection results →
Aug 20
Rasmussen Reports ◆Trump approval−14
42—56LV · 1,500 · gold-standard
Aug 17
Emerson ◆Generic ballotD+8.0
51—43LV · 1,000 · gold-standard
Economist/YouGovGeneric ballotD+7.0
46—39RV · 1,450
Reuters/IpsosGeneric ballotD+5.0
41—36RV · 876
Echelon InsightsGeneric ballotD+5.0
50—45LV · 1,002
Emerson ◆Trump approval−16
40—56LV · 1,000 · gold-standard
Economist/YouGovTrump approval−18
40—58RV · 1,450
Reuters/IpsosTrump approval−30
35—65RV · 876
Echelon InsightsTrump approval−19
40—59LV · 1,002
RMG ResearchTrump approval−13
42—55RV · 3,000
Aug 16
Morning ConsultGeneric ballotD+4.0
46—42LV · 29,719
Aug 11
Financial TimesGeneric ballotD+6.0
51—45LV · 1,857
Financial TimesTrump approval−18
38—56LV · 1,857
RMG ResearchTrump approval−13
42—55RV · 3,000
02The calendar aheadevery election day between now and the midtermsFull calendar →
03The boardthe desk’s live model — ninety days of it
generic congressional ballot—
trump net approval—
direction of the country—
projected senate53–4765 holdovers + 35 modeled · faded ticks are this cycle’s seats
04The watchlistthe five tightest senate races in the modelAll 35 ratings →
01NENebraskaD+0.2incumbent02SCSouth CarolinaR+0.5incumbent03IAIowaR+0.7open seat04OHOhioD+0.9incumbent05TXTexasD+1.7incumbent