TPSI Forecast2026 General ElectionUpdated April 2026
Race Ratings
Every contested U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race, placed on a single axis from the safest Democratic seat to the safest Republican one. Built from weighted polling, structural state baselines, incumbency, and the national environment.
Projected control · contested seats
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Within two pointsNE D+0.2 · SC R+0.5 · IA R+0.7 · OH D+0.9 · TX D+1.7
Northeast & small states
StateSenator / seatIncumbentApprovalPollingModeled
Safe D10
NM New MexicoBen Ray Luján DRunning-20—D+62.2
RI Rhode IslandJack Reed DRunning-28D+35.5D+33.2
MA MassachusettsEd Markey DRunning-15D+27.5D+27.0
DE DelawareChris Coons DRunning-20D+24.5D+23.8
OR OregonJeff Merkley DRunning-21D+20.5D+23.2
IL IllinoisDick Durbin DOpen seat-12D+18.5D+20.6
NJ New JerseyCory Booker DRunning-19D+18.5D+20.0
VA VirginiaMark Warner DRunning-25D+14.5D+18.5
CO ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper DRunning-22D+11.5D+17.5
ME MaineSusan Collins RRunning-13D+8.5D+13.0
Likely D5
GA GeorgiaJon Ossoff DRunning-18D+4.5D+10.8
NH New HampshireJeanne Shaheen DOpen seat+12D+7.5D+10.5
MN MinnesotaTina Smith DOpen seat-16D+7.5D+10.1
NC North CarolinaThom Tillis ROpen seat+4D+12.5D+8.1
AK AlaskaDan Sullivan RRunning-8D+5.5D+6.5
Lean D1
MI MichiganGary Peters DOpen seat-17D+2.5D+5.6
Tilt D3
TX TexasJohn Cornyn RRunning+6D+1.5D+1.7
OH OhioJon Husted RRunning+15D+4.5D+0.9
NE NebraskaPete Ricketts RRunning+1D+0.4D+0.2
Tilt R2
SC South CarolinaLindsey Graham RRunning-2R+4.6R+0.5
IA IowaJoni Ernst ROpen seat-5R+2.6R+0.7
Lean R2
KS KansasRoger Marshall RRunning+6R+8.6R+4.8
FL FloridaAshley Moody RRunning+17R+5.6R+5.6
Likely R3
MS MississippiCindy Hyde-Smith RRunning+9R+7.6R+6.5
KY KentuckyMitch McConnell ROpen seat-36R+5.6R+8.1
LA LouisianaBill Cassidy RRunning+9R+16.6R+10.7
Safe R9
MT MontanaSteve Daines ROpen seat+13R+12.6R+12.1
AR ArkansasTom Cotton RRunning+15R+16.6R+14.0
SD South DakotaMike Rounds RRunning+23R+17.6R+15.1
AL AlabamaTommy Tuberville ROpen seat+19R+16.6R+16.1
ID IdahoJim Risch RRunning+22R+14.6R+17.3
OK OklahomaJames Lankford RRunning+17R+27.6R+20.1
TN TennesseeBill Hagerty RRunning+27R+24.6R+21.1
WV West VirginiaShelley Moore Capito RRunning+19R+40.6R+28.6
WY WyomingCynthia Lummis ROpen seat+26R+42.6R+36.2
Rating tiers
- Safe>12 pts
- Outcome not in doubt under any reasonable scenario.
- Likely6–12 pts
- Strongly favors one party; a major shift would be needed to flip.
- Lean2–6 pts
- Favored party holds a clear but not decisive edge.
- Tilt0–2 pts
- Effectively a toss-up with a measurable directional lean.
Input signals
- Modeled result
- Primary signal — structural baseline + polling + incumbency + national environment.
- Polling average
- TPSI weighted model (recency, sample size, pollster grade). Fallback when no model result.
- Approval rating
- Net in-state approval of the incumbent — informs open-seat baselines and candidate quality.
- National environment
- Generic ballot, presidential approval, and historical midterm-wave patterns as a correction.
Correction factors
- −8.5 ptsGeneric-ballot correction
- Applied to the Dem baseline for structural partisan lean per state.
- +16.7 ptsStructural R adjustment
- Republican structural advantage from 2024-cycle modeling.
- SplitOffice independence
- Popular incumbents can outperform their state's presidential baseline.
- LiveUpdate cadence
- Ratings refresh automatically as new polls enter the database.
Toss-up is reserved for races where polling and structural signals are in direct conflict or unavailable. A Tilt carries a measurable lean but stays within the margin of error.