TPSI Forecast2026 General ElectionUpdated August 2026
Race Ratings
Every contested U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race, placed on a single axis from the safest Democratic seat to the safest Republican one. Built from weighted polling, structural state baselines, incumbency, and the national environment.
Projected control · contested seats
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Within two pointsOH R+0.3 · SC D+1.1 · AK D+1.3 · IA D+1.5 · NE R+1.7
Northeast & small states
StateSenator / seatIncumbentApprovalPollingModeled
Safe D11
NM New MexicoBen Ray Luján DRunning-20—D+46.3
RI Rhode IslandJack Reed DRunning-28D+37.2D+30.9
DE DelawareChris Coons DRunning-20D+26.2D+25.5
MA MassachusettsEd Markey DRunning-15D+22.3D+24.4
OR OregonJeff Merkley DRunning-21D+22.2D+23.9
IL IllinoisDick Durbin DOpen seat-12D+20.2D+23.1
NJ New JerseyCory Booker DRunning-19D+20.2D+19.1
VA VirginiaMark Warner DRunning-25D+19.9D+19.1
CO ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper DRunning-22D+13.2D+17.4
NH New HampshireJeanne Shaheen DOpen seat+12D+5.8D+13.7
MN MinnesotaTina Smith DOpen seat-16D+4.7D+12.3
Likely D3
GA GeorgiaJon Ossoff DRunning-18D+8.0D+10.8
NC North CarolinaThom Tillis ROpen seat+4D+5.5D+7.0
MI MichiganGary Peters DOpen seat-17D+0.6D+6.7
Lean D2
ME MaineSusan Collins RRunning-13EVEND+5.2
TX TexasJohn Cornyn ROpen seat+6R+1.3D+2.2
Tilt D3
IA IowaJoni Ernst ROpen seat-5R+3.6D+1.5
AK AlaskaDan Sullivan RRunning-8D+2.8D+1.3
SC South CarolinaLindsey Graham ROpen seat-2R+1.0D+1.1
Tilt R2
OH OhioJon Husted RRunning+15R+1.8R+0.3
NE NebraskaPete Ricketts RRunning+1R+4.7R+1.7
Lean R1
KS KansasRoger Marshall RRunning+6R+5.9R+4.4
Likely R5
KY KentuckyMitch McConnell ROpen seat-36R+9.0R+7.0
FL FloridaAshley Moody RRunning+17R+9.0R+9.3
LA LouisianaBill Cassidy RRunning+9R+14.8R+10.4
MT MontanaSteve Daines ROpen seat+13R+17.5R+10.5
MS MississippiCindy Hyde-Smith RRunning+9R+9.0R+11.0
Safe R8
AL AlabamaTommy Tuberville ROpen seat+19R+15.0R+12.6
AR ArkansasTom Cotton RRunning+15R+15.8R+17.8
OK OklahomaJames Lankford RRunning+17R+20.0R+18.5
TN TennesseeBill Hagerty RRunning+27R+22.8R+20.8
SD South DakotaMike Rounds RRunning+23R+25.0R+21.0
ID IdahoJim Risch RRunning+22R+25.0R+22.3
WV West VirginiaShelley Moore Capito RRunning+19R+38.8R+30.3
WY WyomingCynthia Lummis ROpen seat+26R+40.8R+34.6
Rating tiers
- Safe>12 pts
- Outcome not in doubt under any reasonable scenario.
- Likely6–12 pts
- Strongly favors one party; a major shift would be needed to flip.
- Lean2–6 pts
- Favored party holds a clear but not decisive edge.
- Tilt0–2 pts
- Effectively a toss-up with a measurable directional lean.
Input signals
- Modeled result
- Primary signal — structural baseline + polling + incumbency + national environment.
- Polling average
- TPSI weighted model (recency, sample size, pollster grade). Fallback when no model result.
- Approval rating
- Net in-state approval of the incumbent — informs open-seat baselines and candidate quality.
- National environment
- Generic ballot, presidential approval, and historical midterm-wave patterns as a correction.
Correction factors
- −8.5 ptsGeneric-ballot correction
- Applied to the Dem baseline for structural partisan lean per state.
- +16.7 ptsStructural R adjustment
- Republican structural advantage from 2024-cycle modeling.
- SplitOffice independence
- Popular incumbents can outperform their state's presidential baseline.
- LiveUpdate cadence
- Ratings refresh automatically as new polls enter the database.
Toss-up is reserved for races where polling and structural signals are in direct conflict or unavailable. A Tilt carries a measurable lean but stays within the margin of error.